[Slim Pickens]

The people who seek their "true ROI" as though it was some sort of statistical sacred artifact are probably the same people who go rabbit hunting. Look, the river card does not exist until it is turned face up. If everyone folds, the river card never existed. You can try to measure it, but all you are doing is collapsing the probability distribution to a single point. If you measured it again under the exact same conditions, you'd be measuring from the same probability distribution, but by no means assured the same answer for any subsequent measurement.

Try to measure your ROI and you'll get an answer. Try to measure it again and you'll get a different answer. They all come from the same probability distribution. We can say a lot about it based on the stochasitic nature of poker, but there's a lot of external factors we can't measure that influence the distribution as well. It all converges to an expected value, but it will never converge to a line, nor even a normal distribution determined by the internal statistics of poker.

Meh. I'm sick of this. I should have deleted the ROI cells on the spreadsheet and just left the bankroll plot.

SlimP