Re: A Twist!
my guesses for ml4l's (btw, what does ml4l stand for?) hand are AK and possibly A3s. it's possible he was going to stop and go the turn, but changed his mind based on a read/tell.
the revised flop gives him the possibility to have a really big draw (4d5d) though, can he and play it this way?
on the flop the pot is 90 bucks and he checks and calls 120. this is problematic, because I said before I would think it's weird for mike to play a drawing hand in this position and he has to be fairly certain he'll either scare everyone into checking the turn or extract a lot of $$ if he hits on the turn.
on the turn, the pot is 450 on the turn and when the action gets back to him there's 950 in the pot and it's 250 to him, so it's clearly a +EV call if all his outs are clean (hard to say).
on the river, it would be very odd for him to take any line that involves checking other than check fold. my conclusion is that there's little to no chance ml4l plays 4d5d this way from this position, because of the flop play.
--turnipmonster
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