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Old 06-15-2005, 11:56 PM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 44
Default Re: worst brain freeze ever???

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I don't know that this push is "super easy" according to the rough chip equity calculation I just did. Basically this play is chipEV neutral if you steal the blinds 70% of the time, and the 30% you are called is against TT-AA, AQ/AK. I simplified the calculation for a double up or bust out scenario, and assumed only two outcomes - all fold or just one call. For this play to be +cashEV, you probably need to steal 80-85% of the time, which seems likely with those calling standards (remember someone has to call 10x here).

Assuming these calculations aren't way off, they support my thinking that pushing is marginally good but not really good. I'm sure someone can argue for looser calling standards, and in that case the steal % goes down too.

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This is wrong, I dont feel like doing the calculations right now, but it is definitely +CEV to push AJ 5 handed with antes. It might even be VERY +CEV, if you disagree, I will do the math tomorrow.

Besides that, 5 handed with antes, your stack is going to get eaten alive if you are waiting for a hand better than AJ. So by the time you do take a stand, you may have 5xBB, and need to double just to get back to the 10xBB stack you should have pushed 20 hands ago.

I really dont understand the obsession with the final table, and have no idea why people are advocating anything other than a push.

I think A8, A9 is where it gets interesting, but I will definitely run through the math tomorrow to see what the baseline hand is.

Original Poster, could you please give me the stack sizes (apx) and payout structure.

thanks
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