Re: worst brain freeze ever???
I don't know that this push is "super easy" according to the rough chip equity calculation I just did. Basically this play is chipEV neutral if you steal the blinds 70% of the time, and the 30% you are called is against TT-AA, AQ/AK. I simplified the calculation for a double up or bust out scenario, and assumed only two outcomes - all fold or just one call. For this play to be +cashEV, you probably need to steal 80-85% of the time, which seems likely with those calling standards (remember someone has to call 10x here).
Assuming these calculations aren't way off, they support my thinking that pushing is marginally good but not really good. I'm sure someone can argue for looser calling standards, and in that case the steal % goes down too.
|