[Wetdog]

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The assertion is easily backed up with math.

Suppose he has an ace
- AK -- 60-40 dog -- 16 ways
- AQ and AT -- 68-32 dog -- 24 ways
- AJ -- 58-42 dog -- 16 ways
- A9-A2 -- 52-48 dog -- 128 ways

So 128/184 = 70% of the time that he has an ace, he has a weak ace and you're just worse than 50-50 against him (hot/cold). You can easily repeat the calculation for kings.


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Excellent stuff. A big eye-opener.

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You may want to rethink your ideas about vulnerability.

QTs flops...
- Top pair with the queen 9.6% of the time. In this case, the probability that an overcard will fall on the turn is 17% and the probability that an overcard will fall by the river is 31%. So about 70% of the time, your top pair of queens remains top pair.
- Top pair with the ten 7.6% of the time. In this case, the probability that a bad overcard will fall on the turn is 25% and the probability that a bad overcard will fall by the river is 45%. About 55% of the the time, your top pair of tens will remain top pair.

These numbers don't even take into account the chances of improving via a flush, two pair, trips, straight draws, and so forth.

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It does make me rethink my ideas. Thanks

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You're welcome to bail out of this conversation at any time. But what you have demonstrated so far is a not-so-solid understanding of preflop play based on weak assumptions about postflop play.

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Noted, and thanks.

Oh, and FYP didn't really apply. I didn't "fix" anything. On that you'll have to agree.