Re: too weak here or ok?
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This is a raise under some circumstances.
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I changed your post. I'm sure that you mind. Queen high sooted is hardly worth a raise with 5 yet to play. Even at Paradise there'll be stronger callers. As much as I hate open limping in MP, I'd rather fold than raise here.
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The acronym used for that is FYP. Of course, I still disagree with you.
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... it's more likely that you're behind a weak king or ace, which you would be glad to fold out with a raise.
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I'm sure there are facts to back up the assertion that it's likely the A or K is weak. Assertion to the contrary without evidence is spewage, albeit minor.
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The assertion is easily backed up with math.
Suppose he has an ace
- AK -- 60-40 dog -- 16 ways
- AQ and AT -- 68-32 dog -- 24 ways
- AJ -- 58-42 dog -- 16 ways
- A9-A2 -- 52-48 dog -- 128 ways
So 128/184 = 70% of the time that he has an ace, he has a weak ace and you're just worse than 50-50 against him (hot/cold). You can easily repeat the calculation for kings.
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There are 8 overcards to our Q and 15 to the T. Do you really think the fish mucked the majority of those?
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I don't know if they mucked a "majority" of those. I'm also not going to give up immediately if an overcard falls. In short-handed situations, you should be afraid to show down second pair unless you have a read that will tell you otherwise.
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I understand the 2+2 mindset is to be aggressive. I have embraced that ideal because of my nature and having seen the value of getting my money in hard with +EV situations. But I think it needs to be tempered with some grasp of the likelihood of our vulnerability.
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You may want to rethink your ideas about vulnerability.
QTs flops...
- Top pair with the queen 9.6% of the time. In this case, the probability that an overcard will fall on the turn is 17% and the probability that an overcard will fall by the river is 31%. So about 70% of the time, your top pair of queens remains top pair.
- Top pair with the ten 7.6% of the time. In this case, the probability that a bad overcard will fall on the turn is 25% and the probability that a bad overcard will fall by the river is 45%. About 55% of the the time, your top pair of tens will remain top pair.
These numbers don't even take into account the chances of improving via a flush, two pair, trips, straight draws, and so forth.
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Crap, what was the flop again? We got so balled up in gay preflop that I forgot. Can we quit playing cards now and start playing poker? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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You're welcome to bail out of this conversation at any time. But what you have demonstrated so far is a not-so-solid understanding of preflop play based on weak assumptions about postflop play.
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