[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't assume two pair straight or trips based on one bet. but the flop is connected and the pot is very multiway. that dramatically increases the risk to be up against a good hand.
i would raise too, if one small bet would increase my chances to win the pot considerably. but it is almost sure, that it is not the case here. you have neither a hand nor outs that you can protect effectively.

here my reasoning against against the raise from a previous answer:


i don't think the raise on the flop is correct.

obviously you can't raise for value here. let's see if a raise really helps hero's pot equity:

i am pretty sure, the only hands he can shut out are weak one pair hands with a weak kicker, gutshot straights, backdoor flushes and weak overcards. it is almost impossible to win this pot without a showdown.

he might be up agains a straight or a set. in this case the bet is just wasted.
a 2 pair is pretty likely too. if he is up against a two-pair, it won't help to get gutshots out, because it is impossible that the gutshot hits and hero end's up with 2 pair or better.
it's very likely that he is up against a pair and a straight draw. in this case he can't get hand's out that hurt him.

i don't see any likely possibility how a raise on the flop could help hero's pot equity enough to justify that play.

i would however raise it preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your reasoning makes little sense. You seem to think that you are ahead pre-flop, but that your outs are tainted post-flop. How did that happen?

Also, you say that the only people that will fold are weak pairs, gut-shots, and backdoor draws, and that your only chance of winning is to go to a showdown.

This is EXACTLY why you raise. You would love hands like Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (or K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and yes, at least on e person here has a hand THAT bad) to fold, because if you do hit your Q you want it to be good.

Hero has outs to call. Raising is almost always better because:

1) A small percentage of the time he has a better hand than the bettor
2) Each fold he induces improves his chance of winning dramatically (again, how much is it worth in pot equity if he gets Q3 to fold? That probably doubles his chances of winning the pot)

I'm still a journeyman with a lot to learn, but I'm pretty sure the flop-raise is correct, and that it's not even a close decision.

Again, no one is suggesting that the flop raise is for value.