[jgorham]

Your hands are fun:

Based on his action, I am ~100% sure villain doesn't have a set here. He lead into the PFR on the flop, and didn't cap the flop or raise the turn. Yet he raised on the river. A lot can be read from his flop bet, and subsequent calling of 2 cold: this guy has an ace. On the river, facing the checkraise, you just need to calc the odds he had AcXc vs the odds he had A9o.

If the A on board was a club, I think this is an easy three bet. But if the 6 was a club (and the A was offsuit - which i am pretty sure is the case here), we need to do some math. There are two aces left in the deck for villain to hold, and 3 nines (9c on board). Thus, 6 variations of A9o are possible for villain.

To see how many AcXc are possible, we just give villain credit for the Ac and count down. AK, AQ, AT, A8, A7, A5, A3, and A2 are all possible - making 8 variations. But, villain would have raised AK and AQ suited preflop, so those hands are out, leaving villain with 6 possibilities here.

But taking this line of thought a little further, villain didn't know the turn card would be a club, and therefore there is a substantial chance that some of those weaker AcXc hands would have folded the flop. Beyond that, there is a chance that villain would also raise AcTc preflop. So I would weight the A9 hands as more likely than the AcXc hands.

So because of all that, I am prone to 3betting the river. But before I do, we must consider whether or not this player would fold A9 to the 3bet here, and I think the answer is clearly no. The other consideration is whether or not villain would cap this river with anything hero beats - again, I think the answer is no.

This is an amazingly thin edge to push, but I say 3bet the river and fold to a cap.


NOTE: all of the above is presuming that villain is mostly a decent player, just a little too loose and a little too passive. I think this is a safe assumption given the stakes (and the fact that GoT posted this in the first place), but if that read wasn't true the above analysis would be off.