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Old 06-13-2005, 04:08 AM
joel2006 joel2006 is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 4
Default Re: Question (For Soah)

"You seem to be oblivious to the very basic gambling concept of Expected Value."

No I'm not oblivious to it at all, I understand EV.

Let's say you start with $3000 and your opponent starts with $200, and you bully him around by constantly setting him all-in when you're a 2:1 dog.

So assuming that you will continue bullying him until one of you goes broke, at which point the game ends, you will make a $200 profit 65 times out of 81, and lose $3000 16 times out of 81. (65/81 x 200) + (16/81 x -3000) = 160 - 593 = -433

Here you make my point which is that the SS will get broke 4x for every time he doesn't or to put it another way in any given session the odds are 4:1 that he will get broken, which means he is very likely to get broken in any single session. Yes he will make money in the long run, but he will spend a lot of time broke. My point is that there are other ways of playing that make money where you don't spend a lot of time broke.

"You lose an average of $433 to each person that you try to bully. So congratulations. You're one of the millions of fish that make the games good."

You missed my point, I don't play this way and i stated in my original post that many guys who do LOSE MONEY, my point is that if they are willing to make this play and the SS knows this, that they can give a SS a lot of trouble because they won't always be settting you in with a draw, they will oftentimes be ahead of you and it will be difficult for the SS to know which is which.
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