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Old 06-10-2005, 08:32 PM
Stew Stew is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 1,360
Default Re: Not a very good play

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I like this play very much at all, mainly because its limit poker. You don't get to punish your opponents enough when you DO make your hand to make it worthwhile to go into the hand knowing you're a huge underdog. Also, you stated that the two players that did call were relatively loose and tricky players that loved to play any two cards and see flops down to the turn at the very least. Against those players, a set of 7's is still a great hand, but hardly dominating. They could be playing 56s 10Js AQs, literally anything. So when your 7 hits, they could easily have a straight draw or a flush draw that you could be paying off big time, even if youre way ahead until the river. Set vs overpair is much more powerful in NL, when you can isolate the pot to 1-2 opponents, so less draws are avaliable and you can really punish them.

Now many people mentioned set vs overset, and that is indeed a big problem for you. You discounted them as playing scared poker, but you are in fact playing unsafe poker. Say the flop comes Q74. UTG bets out, initial raises, you play it the same way. Now the turn is a K. He bets out now you go for the raise, but he reraises, a normal move for AA or KK, now what do you do? If you just call, you just lost all that implied odds you were talking about. River you check-call and might win the pot from AA, but you lost a lot of your implied odds. The problem is with 2 tricky players with any two cards, and one guy with an overpair, you're in hot water. ANY flop with a combination of AKQ before the turn cripples your implied odds as you can no longer cap raising safely. ANY flop that hits you will most likely hit a draw for one of the tricky players. So your percentage to win the pot is never really high to begin with, and theres way too many opponents for you to make this a profitable play in the long run.

You seemed to be looking for people to tell you what a great play this was, but I'd say its a marginal play at best. I would also definitely call in this spot as you would, but only because I'm an action player and I'll take any flop that is very slightly +EV or -EV out of sheer boredom.

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Again, the likliehood of set over set is very insigifigant to me.

Also, I never said anything about two tricky players. I said one player was tricky, but I should have been more clear in that he has FPS and not that he's a GOOD tricky player.

The initial pre-flop raise was certainly anything but tricky.
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