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Old 06-10-2005, 08:29 PM
Stew Stew is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 1,360
Default Re: Is My Thinking Flawed...Pre-Flop Implied Odds

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aaron, regardless of the fact that you only have 78 posts I think your analysis is right on. Frankly, anyone who begins a post rebuking a claim by noting how many posts someone else has is being defensive... but that is not the real issue at hand.

I am not totally against playing this hand, but I think that it is at best a pretty break-even proposition in the long run. How would you play if the board came all unders? would you fold then? How would you plaay if you hit an inside straight draw and were faced with one bet in a big pot (you probably should call given your opponents even though you are behind)!

In a multi-way pot if you are raised you lose a lot of your implied odds when facing the decision to call two bets cold, although the fact that multiple players are in the hand does in fact mitigate this to a degree. What I know is that a pair of sevens is a very vulnerable hand against 4 opponents. Even when you hit your flop you are often faced with difficult situations. A set is not a guaranteed win. In fact, the flop you saw was not ideal! An ideal flop would not put a straight on the board... or any over cards... but with 77 that is not possible!!! you either will have straight possibilities or over cards present (and overcards mean at least the possibility of over pairs). I am not advocating playing scared. I play aggressively when I make a hand even when the board is scary to get a feel for where my opponents are, but I do not like playing 77 for a raise against a field of opponents, one of whom you know has a big pocket pair.

-K_squared

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You have made probably the best argument against playing the hand thus far and I certainly agree with your analysis and you make excellent points.

I certainly agree that playing this hand in this situation (on the button against a known raiser with an overpair) is a losing proposition. However, I felt that knowing all six players were going to take the flop certainly made the hand turn into a potential EV situation and the apparent weakenesses of teh two limpers that could be exploited made it a clear easy play in my opinion.

Certainly it's not something that I always sit back and think...OK two players limped, one player raised, oh I've got pocket sevens, I'd better call b/c I have odds to do so.

There's much more to it than that.

I do also want to make not of one error in your post, I lose absolutely ZERO IMPLIED odds when faced with a raise. Pot odds, yes, break-even pot odds, also YES. Pot Equity certainly decreases knowing there is an overpair out there. But, implied odds in my opinion increased as I saw the potential for a large pot, which is part of the reason I actually played the hand.

I clearly stated I had intended to see the hand to the turn for 3 small bets, possibly four, almost regardless of what came. Although, I think with the same flop texture not containing a seven, I would have clearly folded to the raise and re-raise. If unders had come, I would have also probably folded b/c there are only the 2,3,4,5,6 and any combo of three of those makes a straight possible with an Ace, so I probably would have gotten out of that too. But, then again, maybe the flop gets checked with a board like that, or at the very least it's one bet

One final thing, everyone keeps harping on set over set and I understand that's possible, but again the likeliehood of that occuring are so insignifigant, that it's negligible in my opinion. And, even if a flop came all one suit or 3 to a straight, I.E, 7,8,j or whatever. With a flopped set, I'm 2 - 1 to make a full house on the river.
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