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I am trying to get some insight on ways to modify ICM for the blinds.
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I was working on this a few weeks ago myself.
I wrote a program to compare ICM to actual results in the tournaments I have, and then grouping the results into categories so I might see where the ICM was most wrong.
One report that I did was to compare ICM to actual results for the various positions in 4-handed hands. This contains about 10,000 hands from 400 tournaments (I think). I computed these results for all 4-handed hands, for all 4 players (not just me).
****NOTE: These numbers are really worthless due to small sample size, but I figured that I would post them and let you draw your own conclusions. It may also motivate me to finish this ICM project, and maybe get me some volunteers to send me hand histories to help my sample.
According to this, the ICM overvalues your $EV by 0.007 when you are about to post the BB. This is 0.7% or $7 in a 100/9 tournament.
Even though your question was about UTG, the ICM numbers are really "what will my $EV be AFTER this hand if fold or win". Therefore, you should be looking at the BB number in these charts.
Broken down by blind level. I believe this shows the effect of my small sample size.
