Analysis, Anyone?
Hey all,
Apparently, it's just me, but I don't think that it's as easy as, "Duh, fold." Does nobody else think that villain's line is just a little weird? On the flop, I think that a call is fine. You have position, a lot of cards will slow him down on the turn if you are behind on the flop, and I think there's a decent chance that Hero is ahead.
The turn might be the time to dump the hand. But, even then, $500 doesn't make sense with hands like AA-QQ. I think that the turn action narrows his holdings to JJ (trying to sucker him in), Ahxh (trying to maintain control while getting a semi-cheap card), or a bluff. It's just a matter of how often you feel opponent is going to keep following through with AKo or a smaller pocket pair like 99/88.
The river doesn't really change much. The bet makes sense with any of the above holdings (JJ, Ahxh, desperation bluff). So, again, it's just a matter of frequency. Bayes says 6 combos of JJ, 1 of AhKh, 1 of AhQh. Measure that against how spunky you think he'd get with AKo, and I think that it's a heck of a lot closer than people are making it out to be.
Helpful to have a read before you get yourself into these spots, though.
Do others not agree with this?
ML4L
PS FWIW, I made a river call kinda similar to this one at the Wynn last week. I was shown JJ.
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