[AaronBrown]

[ QUOTE ]
It wasn't HU, so I don't even know why you would say that.

[/ QUOTE ]I apologize, I wasn't clear. I know it wasn't heads up. My point was that the other four callers don't make the situation better, so if you wouldn't do it heads up, you shouldn't do it at all.

The key is these situations is whether things depend on you making a hand or one of your opponents making his hand. If you have 1 chance in 4 of beating each of five other players because you're drawing to an Ace-high flush, then you have almost 1 chance in 4 of beating all of them, because you'll either hit your flush and beat everyone, or miss it and beat no one. If everyone else is playing high cards, you can tell if there are full house threats. Moreover, you have a good chance of more than one of them putting large amounts in the pot, because one or more could have very strong hands and still lose to you.

But if the outcome depends on whether the other players make their hands, your odds of winning are much worse than 1 in 4, because each of them independently can beat you. Playing 7 7 against A A and four people going for straights, flushes or higher threes is a dubious proposition. Not just because your chance of winning is low, but because you only win if no one makes much of a hand, and then you don't get much money. If you lose, you lose to a very good hand that can afford to raise away. And with everyone going for something different, you're likely to face exactly one opponent, the worst situation for you.

Of course, you got your third 7, then a full house and lots of people stayed in, presumbly chasing threes, straights and flushes. But that won't happen very often.

The way I see it, you're going to fold on the flop about five times out of six. You need to pick up a 7, and if you see an A, K or Q, the tight player might have three of those. If he doesn't, someone else might. You say they'll play anything, but that doesn't mean they don't have high cards. Even if no one has threes, there could be enough high cards out there that lots of people are drawing to them. If you see two cards above the 7, you may fold as well, at least you can't afford to bet aggressively.

I know that's not a complete analysis, you could get 4, 5 and 6 of clubs, for example, but on the other hand a three-flush in another suit or triple connectors might make you nervous.

Once you hit your 1 in 6 shot, you've got a classic case of a favorite hand with about an even shot of ending up second-best. If you're second-best, you're going against someone who can raise with confidence; whereas you can't raise with confidence until you hit your full house and/or the board rules out straights, flushes and higher threes.

The only way this play makes sense to me is that you're so confident of your ability to steer through all these possibilties, sensing when someone has you beat and inducing calls when you have them beat, that you'd want to be in almost any pot with almost any cards.