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Old 06-08-2005, 08:40 PM
Pov Pov is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 145
Default Re: Brand-New, So Humor Me

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He finally made a small raise pre-flop (100 fantasy dollars). I called it with J,10 s. The flop came Qs-3h-6s.
I figured i had a good flush draw and a bad straight draw, so i set him all-in, thinking, he'll probably call me, because he is trying to trap me with a pocket pair he had.

He called, and when he flipped, he had Q-10clubs, so all he had was TP. Fourth street was 7s for a flush by moi, so i won.

Was i right to bet this? My figuring was i had about 20% chance of hitting the flush, giving me 4-1 underdog status. However, considering i stood to win 75 dolars if i hit it, and only 5 if i didn't, i somehow concluded to myself that i had 15-1 "pot odds". Is this thinking wrong because it was heads-up? Or because of the silly tournament set-up?

Feedback appreciated.

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Let me start by saying don't take this too hard if your ego bruises easily . . . I'm not trying to be mean, just honest.

There is definitely some incorrect thinking here. At blinds of 20/40 I'm assuming you had something like 1400 chips - I like the call with JTs - it has a lot of potential and his raise really is giving you a great price to call. This means the pot stands at 200 chips.

Okay, the flop comes up and you flop nothing. Now, there's a great chance he also has nothing so I'm not saying to give up on the hand and in fact betting is a great idea. The equity your flush draw gives you combined with your fold equity makes a decent bet a fairly standard play here. By a standard bet I mean wagering between 50% and 150% of the pot. However, betting 1000 chips (I'm guessing here) into a 200 chip pot is an enormous mistake. You've risked 1000 chips to win 200 and you're virtually guaranteed to be a significant underdog if called.

When you say "thinking, he'll probably call me" you have jumped the shark. The reason to bet this hand is because you think there is a strong chance he will fold. This combined with the decent chance of eventually making the best hand if he does call is what makes the play profitable. Another quote "all he had was TP" seems to indicate a large misunderstanding of heads up play. Any pair on the flop is a strong hand. Top pair is a fantastic hand here. Your opponent really got the best of you.

Math problems: You're a 1.86:1 dog to make your flush. Including your chances for runner runner J's and straights (that he doesn't make also), your opponent is going to win about 61% of the time. The fact you thought your opponent would call and that you're only 20% to win if he does just makes this worse.

There is a time for all-in steal plays - it's when the blinds are large and represent a significant portion of your stack and you get to that "pot committed" stage. That occurs about when your stack gets to 5-10 BB's. Here your stack must have been at least 30. You have more than enough time to wait for a more favorable flop.

Your prize structure should affect your overall tournament strategy significantly since this is essentially a winner take all. You should look to make big scores and build a big stack since you can't back your way into any money. Now that you're heads up with the lead it's a whole different ball game. You basically wagered $70 on a hand you knew had almost no chance of being best.
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