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Old 06-08-2005, 06:57 PM
AaronBrown AaronBrown is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 505
Default Re: Is My Thinking Flawed...Pre-Flop Implied Odds

Depending on what the other players hold, you have about a 40% to 50% of winning the hand after seeing the flop, based on your analysis, and assuming no one started with a pair of 9's or 8 10. The flop makes the strong hand (A A, K K or Q Q) weak, but it's loaded with straight and flush possibilities. I'd feel better if the other four players were tight and could be expected to have high cards, pairs or suited connectors.

Say you have a 50% chance of winning, which I think is about the maximum reasonable figure. If you get beat, it's to a very good hand, someone who is likely to make it as expensive as possible for you. If you win, it's probably because there are no straight or flush hands, or other threes. How much money can you eke out of that?

And this is all assuming your not already almost beat. If there's a pair of 9's, an 8 10 and suited diamonds, your chance of winning is only 5% and it could be a very big pot.

I'm not saying it's a bad situation, your expectation is clearly positive. I'm just saying you got a great flop but you don't have a great expected value.

By situations with lots of unknowns, I meant lots of people in the pot who could be going for a lot of different kinds of hands. It's the kind of situation that makes implied pot odds almost meaningless. Some players love the anarchy, some hate it. After the flop, there's a good chance that the winner of this hand will be determined by the river card.
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