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Old 06-08-2005, 05:47 PM
Stew Stew is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 1,360
Default Re: Is My Thinking Flawed...Pre-Flop Implied Odds

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BTW, "losing poker" as you explained it sounds to me like being afraid of what can beat you, rather than looking at what you can win. I already knew I was behind, I was looking at the money I could win.

If someone offered you 10-1 on the fact a six-sided die might roll a 6 on one roll, shouldn't you take it? Sure, it could turn up 1,2,3,4 or 5, but the odds are better than the bet and you should take it(assuming you know the die is fair).

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No, by "losing poker" I meant that if you applied the same reasoning in many hands, you would lose more than you would win. It's not quite the same thing as implied pot odds, because that only considers the one hand. A play can have a negative expected value for the one hand, but earn it back later in its effect on your opponents. The traditional bluff is an example of that, although some theorists like Sklansky say even a bluff should have a positive expected value for the hand.

Yes, I would take 10-1 on a fair die coming up 6. I didn't enumerate the ways you could lose to suggest you fold, I meant it to be a rough calculation of implied pot odds. By calling you could lose small (fold after the flop), win big (hit the flop and rake in a big pot) or lose big (hit the flop and still lose). I agree with you that you had a decent probability of a big win, and that made up for the larger probability of a small loss. My point was the possibility of a big loss, in my opinion, tips the scales against this play. You got a flop among the best possible for you, and still had only a moderate positive expectation. I would have called knowing I would get this flop, but considering all the flops that you would fold, I think the implied pot odds were against you.

But it's not an exact science, you could well be right. After all, you were at the table and I wasn't. You know the players and the game. You might be a much better poker player who can make money in situations I can't. That would make your implied pot odds better than mine in this situation.

I suspect from your post that you like to play situations with lots of unknowns. I respect that. Lots of otherwise good players shy away from these, so there's money to be made. I know good players who don't mind getting in with the odds a little against them if there are lots of possibilities, figuring that in a wide-open situation, their playing skills will make up the deficit.

I don't think I'm afraid of such situations, although you're entitled to your opinion, but I don't seek them out either. I prefer to seek advantage in other ways.

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I don't quite understand two things. Number one, you stated that, "You like to play in situations with lots of unknowns." What limit do you normally play? I don't think you've played a lot of low limit games b/c you should realize that the amount of available information compared to the amount of unavailable information is widely slanted to the unavailable side. I mean seeing guys regularly limp, re-raise with hands such as 9,7 suited and 10,7 offsuit isn't exactly something that allows you to put a guy on that hand.

I also don't see how you could say that with the flop I did get that I only had a moderate Positive Expectation. I think with that flop, regardless of the game conditions, but certainly this one the expectation of the hand at that point was the highest of almost any hand I'd played all night. At the moment the flop was dealt, I'm speaking. I mean what better could you get for EV when you flop a set with a weak tight calling station on your right whose cards you practically know, to a LAG UTG and a loose-weak limper in EP. Sure, the flop came with two diamonds. But you have to remember for them to catch a flush, they had to have been playing two diamonds (or possibly one with runner, runner turn and river) in the first place, which is possible, but certainly not likely given all the hand combinations that are available.

I don't normally seek out situations where I know I'm putting in the money the pot already behind, but I will say that identifying situations where there are chips to be won in a hand where I have Position and a high likeliehood of winning not only the hand, but a lot of chips if my hand hits, then you can guarantee I'm going to take advantage of that.
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