Re: Why is this play so wrong?
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I'm using your program.
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Ok. Just making sure you were taking BB out of your stack to calculate your fold $EV. My program does that. What my program doesn't do is take the SB out for your next hand. This procedure is debatable. Might be interesting to plug that in and see if it makes much of a difference.
In general, I'm not sure why you find this so surprising. You're gambling for all your chips on a coin flip on the bubble. You shouldn't want to do that, especially when you're not in desperate shape if you don't. If that is a new idea for you, I think you'll get a great deal of value out of the program.
As a finer point, remember that the gap shrinks when it goes ITM from the bubble, so the big stack advantage isn't as great. It can sometimes make sense to gamble for a hand that leaves you with the big stack on the bubble, because you can bully like hell from there. ITM this doesn't work nearly as well because the difference between 2nd and 3rd is only half as big as the difference between 3rd and 4th, making it correct for people to call you with a wider range of hands. (and more importantly than whether it's "correct" or not, people do in fact gamble more freely once ITM.)
eastbay
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