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Old 06-08-2005, 02:25 AM
Stew Stew is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 1,360
Default Re: Is My Thinking Flawed...Pre-Flop Implied Odds

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The biggest problem with your hand is that even if you flop a set, there are 2 outs for you opponent and, more importantly, 8 scare cards out there. You figure your opponent for AA, KK, or QQ... now what do you do when you flop a set and the flop or turn puts an ace, king, or queen on the board? For all you know, he just picked up a higher set... which could cause you to make an incorrect fold, or even worse, if he DID pick up the higher set and you think he's simply betting the overpair, you could lose a serious stack of chips.

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I actually do think this is a valid point because the threat of a king or ace hitting with your 7 on the flop will seriously affect the confidence with which you try to build the pot post flop. I don't have a calculator in front of me so I can't figure out the odds, but an ace or king will hit the flop with that 7 a significant amount of times. For that matter, since he probably won't give up his hand, you should consider how often an ace or king will hit the board. This is important to think about when considering the implied odds.

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But the flaw in your thinking is that an A or a K will hit the flop when it is UNKNOWN where 2 of those 8 cards are...I knew where two were. Additionally, I could say with about 75% certainty that pre-flop one of the additional A's or K's were gone as the two limpers liked to play hands with any one big card.

It just seems to me that you are all more worried about him hitting a two outer ONCE I hit my set and do you understand what the odds of set over set are? I mean that to me should factor in very little in my decision-making.

If I hit my set on the flop, I'm probably gonna win the hand at least 8, if not 9 times out of ten and certainly losing to a higher set would have been the last of my concerns (as opposed to a straight or flush).
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