[Stew]

First off, this may be the wrong forum, but I'm not quite sure if another forum is more appropriate than this. As you can see, I am a long-time 2+2er, but rarely post in this particular forum, though I read it regularly.

OK, so let me set the situation up. I'm at Caesar's Indiana, playing 3/6 Limit Hold 'Em, I play there once a month or so.

I'm on the button, six players are dealt cards. We just went from a full ten to six, as two are sitting out and two left the table.

UTG calls, he is a somewhat loose, but tricky player. I had been playing with him for about two hours. He liked to take flops, but had a check-raise semi-bluff on the turn in his arsenal, along with being rather agressive. He also liked to check-raise the river, when a scare card would come. However, he also seemed to do this when the scare card helped his opponent, instead of hurt him.

Second player also limps. This is a guy who played about every flop. He had been at the table for a couple hours also. He claimed to be a stud player, playing hold 'em for the first time and after observing his play, I do believe him. Not a bad player, but took too many flops. Also had a huge "Strong when Weak" tell in that he'd forcefully bet when weak. Liked to play to the river, no matter what.

Third player, very tight, but weak. I had played next to him for over three hours and he'd raised three times in those three hours, twice with AA and once with KK. I had been very observant of him and vowed to stay out of hands with him when he raised.

However, I look down and see pocket sevens. Normally I'd fold this hand, but I decided to call and let me explain why. Here's where i'm wondering if my thinking is flawed and did my results skew my reality. I knew when calling the raiser he had an overpair and most likely AA or KK. In fact, I discounted any other hand except QQ as I'd never seen him table that. He had limped in the previous 3 hours with JJ twice, AK suited or not on at least 4 occasions and AQ three tiimes.

My reason for calling is that I knew the SB and BB would call the raise as they had done so in those situations before with any two cards as far as I could tell. Further, I knew that the two limpers would also call. I also knew that at worst I may face a bet and a raise by the time it got to me on the flop (either UTG or +1 may bet if the flop hits them and pre-flop raiser would raise). I also thought that the SB and BB would go to the turn no matter what, along with everyone else.

So, my thinking was if I could catch a third 7 by the turn, there would be somewhere in the neighborhood of $60-$70 in the pot and I would have possibly invested $12 to get there, two small bets pre-flop and flop. Additionally, I knew that if this pot got to the river, it would be huge. As I stated, at least 18, small bets by the turn or 9 big bets. Then, probably at least another 4 big bets on turn and river each, if not more. So, I was thinking the pot would be at least $100, if not more.

So, even though I knew I was behind, I figured I was getting around 10-1 on my money to catch a set by the turn and my implied odds pre-flop were huge...as I am 8-1 or so to flop a set. Is this thiking flawed?

Results in white as follows:

<font color="white"> </font> Flop came 7s, 6d, 9d. I had 7c,7d. UTG bets out, initial raise raises. Normally I'd raise here, but I felt a turn raise would be better. The two blinds bail and two limpers, call. Turn is a 3h. Initial raiser bets, I raise, UTG calls. River is the 6c. Initial raiser bets, I raise, UTG as he has done at least 5 times already fiddles with his chips, stares both me and initial better down, counts off a raise, smiles and raies. Initial raiser calls. I shrug my shoulders and raise. UTG FOLDS.. Can you believe that? Anyway, initial raiser calls with AA and I scoop a huge pot. <font color="white"> </font>