Re: Pocket 99s
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Please excuse the check and fold on the flop. I was multi-tabling for the first time and went into a coma. However, while reviewing the hand after the fact, I found that it would have been very difficult to deal with even if I had attempted to play it.
The pot was fairly large because of a pre-flop raiser.
A straight flush draw flopped.
I'm 2nd to act against a possible straight and possible flush (almost certainly draws to 1 or both if they aren't already out), 5 potential overcards to my pocket 99s, and a pre flop raiser that could already have me beaten with a higher pair.
Obviously, even if I am ahead at this point I am in very deep trouble with only 2 outs to a redraw and a million ways to lose. I may also already be toast.
A bet on my part would do nothing to protect my hand. In fact, even if I bet and the pre-flop raiser raised me, that would not protect my hand from open ended straight and flush draws. The best it would do is knock out a few overcards that weren't also flush draws. In fact, if he raised me I'd be tempted to fold because it could be an indication he had a pair (which most likely would be higher than mine because he was the pre flop raiser).
I also don't see how a check raise to protect could work from this position.
Usually when I'm in a situation like this, if I'm going to play, I try to get myself into a situation where I wait for the turn to raise to protect my hand. From this position, I don't see that was possible either.
Any suggestions?
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I would check-call one bet and lead the turn if it's not a heart. If it's two bets back to you on the flop, you've got a lot of thinking to do based on what you know of whoever raised (I'm 3-betting an aggressive player, folding against a passive player).
You seem to have MUBS. If the flop came down 862, would you still be worrying about an overpair based on the preflop raise alone? (I hope not -- you should be thinking that he probably has overcards.) The scary board does not affect villain's preflop raising standards. Do you think villain raised preflop with A2? What about 76 or 62? There's only one combination of AK which has two hearts and 6 with one heart, and 9 with no hearts. Don't think of situations in terms of worst case scenarios. You've got to break away from that mindset and think about what is probable.
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Now let's assume I bet and the pre flop raiser raises.
Do I fold on the assumption that he probably has me beat?
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No. No. No. No. No. He could very easily have a high heart (A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) for a flush draw + gutshot straight.
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If I bet, he calls and someone else raises with either a STR8/Flush value raise or a raise because they already have it then what?
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I wouldn't worry about a made flush until it gets capped.
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It seems to me that if I bet I was likely to get involved in a huge pot that I was likely to lose (and could even be drawing practically dead in).
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Thinking that you're drawing practically dead is weak-tight thinking. The odds of a flopped straight or flopped flush is very low.
Also, consider that there are only four players in the pot. If there were six or seven, you've got a much larger chance of things getting bad on the turn (many more cards become dangerous because many more draws are out there against you). Right now, you've got a decent hand. Get to the turn and hope it's a good card for you.
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