[Cobra]

LetYouDown

Your answer is slightly off. By doing it the way you did you are double counting certain flops. These things are tricky.

For example if the flop comes 4-5-X you should originally say x cannot be a 8,3,4,5. This leaves 34 cases for X, you then go back in and add the times that x are a second 4 or 5. This eliminates the double count of the fours and fives. So the answer should be:

= 4*4*34 = 544 + 2*(4c2)*4 = 544 + 48 = 592 flops. The second term is either flopping two fours and a five or two fives and a four.

So for the three subcases that give you an OESD you have a total of 592*3 = 1776 flops / 19600 = 9.1% or 1 in 11.04.

To the original poster remember there are an additional 128 flops that give you a double gut buster(still an eight out draw). This brings the total flops that give you eight outs from a max stretch connector to 1176+128=1904 flops or 9.7% or 1 in 10.29.

Cobra