Re: Set in unraised $100 NL pot - call $200?
Assuming he's reasonable, he's not doing this with any one pair hand. Since we dont' know what level he's at we don't know if he could make this play with a big draw or a huge draw. There's really no 2pair possibilities on the board (97 maybe since it's SB). Against the OESFDs you're a 58/42 favorite. Against overcard heart draws you're a 75/25 favorite. Against another set you're a 91/9 dog.
This is one of those hands you really need a read on to know how possible it is for villain to do this without a set. Even PT numbers would help. There needs to be a very strong possibility he could do this with a draw or some weak 2pr/top pair hand (>50% of the time) for calling to be correct since you're getting paid 1:1 basically.
Having never played 100NL I don't know if a typical player makes this play with less than a set more than 50% of the time, I'll leave that up to you.
|