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Old 06-06-2005, 06:26 PM
uuDevil uuDevil is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Remembering P. Tillman
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Default Re: Pot odds for calling a river bet with 4 flush on board

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Against a single opponent on the river what pot odds do you need to correctly call a bet from him?

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If you were first to act, maybe you should have bet. (Do a search for "Clarkmeister Theorem" or see this thread for example.) If you checked, you may have induced a bluff, so it depends on how your opponent plays. If he [edit] ALWAYS [/edit] bets, then LetYouDown is right and you need pot odds of > 1.75:1.

LetYouDown said:

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This is opponent based to a large extent, but 99 times out of 100, I'm folding in that spot to any reasonable bet.

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However, I'm not so sure about this. Against a player who may bluff or bet a hand I can beat, I'm calling most of the time. To get a number requires solving an EV equation:

P(my hand is best)*Potsize+(1-P(my hand is best))*(-amt of bet I must call)=0

So I have to estimate P(my hand is best) in order to solve for Potsize. If I think my opponent will bet 20% of the time without a diamond and MHIG that same percentage, P(my hand is best)=.2 and I must call 1 BB, then Potsize= 4 BB. To fold very often in a bigger pot, you have to be VERY sure of your opponent, and I don't think you can be that sure of most poker player's tendencies.
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