Re: Standard Value bet or Check
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The question is not how often you are ahead (which is quite often, IMO) the question is how often you are ahead when he calls.
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You'll have to change your nick if you keep giving advice like this. Anyone who doesn't understand the significance of TheWorstPlayer's comment above should keep working at it till it is fully internalized (or post a question if you still don't see it).
However, which I totally agree with your criteria, I disagree with your results. I think that, of all the hands with which the opponent would call, still more than half of them our hero will beat with his top two pair (though I agree that it is very close). Note that hero will be all in if he bets, here, so he doesn't have to worry about a check-raise, which would be an important consideration if he were deeper.
Therefore, I would recommend that he go ahead and make the river bet, but only because it is all in. If hero had, say, 4 times the pot left in his stack, then it is an easy check behind.
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