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Old 06-05-2005, 08:50 AM
einbert einbert is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: in sklansky i trust
Posts: 2,190
Default Re: SSHE, pages 185-189

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Pokerstove this against random hands and you win 20.6% of the time. I look at 99, that flop, six players, and say "This sucks."

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The random hands thing really doesn't work very well. Due to the preflop action, there is quite a bit more weight on your opponents:
-Not having big pocket pairs
-Not having AK, AQ etc
You have to think of the kinds of hands that are going to be willing to put multiple bets in on this flop. So many hands are going to call call call here drawing totally dead. And if you get them to call three bets total, yes each call is individually +EV for them (often times NOT because they are drawing dead) but putting three bets total isn't because they don't have enough equity. 20% equity in a 6 way pot is enough equity that you make money on every bet that goes into the pot. I like exploiting edges in pot equity to make money in multiway pots, and I think that is the best way to make money in this one.

I just don't see a way to have significant fold equity on the turn given your position, etc. The pot is still going to be tremendous, but depending on the turn card you will likely still have quite the equity edge. I think the best way to play this is to just pump the pot because it's going to be ridiculous difficult to get people to fold the turn, and even when you bet the turn you're going to be giving any reasonable draw (overcards, a gutshot, any pair) odds to draw out on you. Since you likely won't have any fold equity (and thus can't make money by forcing other players to choose between -EV calls and 0 EV folds) I think the best play is to make money by making other players make +EV calls but pushing your pot equity edge.

-Still thinking about it, but I'd like to hear further reasoning (especially what kind of plan you have for trying to protect your hand on the turn, and why you think a 20-16 equity edge isn't enough to push hard at this point).
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