Re: Should i fold this?
Really depends on my read of villian. You showed considerable strength in a large, multiway pot. If villian did have a set, why would he bet so big? Some players do this with very strong hands hoping for a call, but it's not that common - that's where the "read" part comes in. I would think that he would either wait to raise or raise a more appropriate amount if he really had a set - at least a 70% favorite over anything you could possibly bet here except a made straight. The only time that a push is a good move if he has a set is if you have exactly 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in which case he is only a 60% favorite to win and would want to shut you out if possible. I can't really produce numbers here, but from my experience this is an easy call and +EV. I've made and witnessed similar call in the past and almost always was shown TPTK or an overpair - and you're about a 70% favorite over both.
Another factor to consider is that it's more likely that a tricky player would limp UTG w/ AA than with 88 and then push this flop. My guess is that your 70% to double up, giving yourself a strong change at the final table. Even if we factor in a 10% chance that he's doing this move with pocket eights, it's still a good call.
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