[chopchoi]

[ QUOTE ]
Getting 8:1 with two overcards I think I'd like to continue. So I think raising to drive out the SB and get it heads up with the thief is a good idea.



[/ QUOTE ]

The problem here is you're getting 8:1 to call, but only 5 to 1 if you raise, SB folds, and BB calls. You've got about a 1 in 7 chance of improving on the turn, and even if you improve, you don't know if your hand is any good. Plus the fact that MP2 might 3-bet and really screw up your odds.

However, there are some other advantages to raising as well. If you raise, SB folds, MP2 calls, you miss the turn and MP2 checks, you might be able to pick up the pot right there with a bet. Then again, this could end up costing you even more money if he decides to call you down. You could also see a free river.

I don't know, folding and raising both have their merits. If MP2 is the type who will fold AQ to a bet on the turn if he misses, I MIGHT be inclined to raise here. If I think he will call me down, I fold.

All in all, I think I fold 85% of the time, and raise 15%.