I want to believe I\'m a winning player, i REALLY do
Forgive the X-post, but it wasn't getting much play in the probability forum:
After running extraordinarily bad over the past 25,000 hands at the Party 15/30 (-0.2BB/100 ...OK not catastrophic, but a real lesson in humility), I've begun to slip into that dreaded mindset of wondering whether I'm a winning player at all at those stakes (my first 45,000 hands were at a +2.5BB/100, and i had been beating the 2/4 and 3/6 for around 2.5 to 3.5 BB/100).
My question is about confidence intervals and/or standard deviations...perhaps I'm framing this poorly, but I just want to know how long a BAD stretch is "normal", and at what point I should start really taking these mediocre results to heart...i think i remember there being some spreadsheet floating around that discussed how prolonged a drought an exemplary +1.5BB/100 should expect, etc. etc. i.e. what kind of a downswing (and for how long) a 1.5BB/100 player should accept as well within the "normal" range...?
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