[fnord_too]

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Reason I asked is maybe those times we get check raised are offset by the times we hit the flush or the gutter. also protect my hand vs a smaller pair vs 2 pair.



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I think this is a clear bet, and I don't care if I am check raised.

Against Ax of spades you have 9 outs.
Against a set (except aces, and I really don't see him having aces) you have 10 outs.
Against Aces up you have 13-14 outs.
Against everything else that is beating you you have 16-17 outs if I can count that high accurately.

Those are all the ways I see you getting check raised, and you probably have 12+ outs on average when c/r'd.

The only real question in my mind is will he fold a worse hand here but also call the river with that same worse (unimproved) hand? I think the number of hands that meet both those conditions is less than the number of worse hands that call here, and there is a slight chance a hand that would fold may improve to beat you on the river. The better hands that call here are probably going to lead the river if you check but check if you bet here, so unless you are comfortable checking the turn and folding to a river bet unimproved, I don't think checking behind here is good at all.

Edited because I'm blind.