Re: Your play here....
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It should be pretty obvious that BB has 86 here about 95% of the time.
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That's completely false. I'm willing to admit that BB has 99, 55, or 86 95% of the time.
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FYP; he doesn't have 2 pair. 2 pair would put in the second raise, but not a fourth. OK, MAYBE 97, if you hadn't had sevens instead of fives.
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Adanthar, I don't agree with your reasoning YET, and would like to discuss further. Let's review the betting first.
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SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets t40, MP2 calls t40, Hero raises to t80, SB folds, BB calls t80, UTG+1 raises to t120, MP2 folds, Hero calls t40, BB raises to t330, UTG+1 calls t210, Hero calls t210.
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BB checks, calls, and raises. All of the betting has been VERY minimal/smallish. No real threatening bets have been made until BB makes one. I think it's a mistake to not include 97 as one of the very likely hands.
His first call I think is where the debate begins. And maybe this is where I can learn something. Are you saying by just calling hero's bet, that villain does not have two pair? I'm trying to put myself into villains shoes. If I had 97 (two pair) on this flop, I'd likely want to check-raise. But when it returns back to me, with a bet and a raise, would I want to call?
All right. Thanks. You're right. No way I'm just calling with a marginal hand like two pair. That being said, Adanthar, if you had 97, what would be your play? I think after hero makes the t80 raise, I would reraise here with 97, and fold to anymore heat.
Thanks in advance,
Scuba
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