Re: Party 100+9 (whats your line on this tough draw)
Most people would not lead out with a bet if they had a set or two pair. That's not to say it's unlikely (and it might be the best way of playing the hand), but it's not the common thing to do. Against top pair (AQ, KQ, QJ) you're a 54-46 favorite. Add in set and 2 pair possibilities and you're a very, very slight dog.
Pushing on the flop might look like a draw, but I think it also looks like a made hand you want to protect like AA or KK. Making a "normal" raise would be to around T1000 which pot commits you. So pushing is not an overbet. What absolutely looks like a draw is when the pot's T300 and you're pushing T2000. That's not the case here.
So for me, I'd much prefer getting my chips in on the flop as the likely favorite than missing the turn and having to push as a 2 to 1 dog.
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