[madscout]

Ok, I changed the analysis slightly to be more realistic and got a number of 22%

After the flop action I have to greatly discount the number of AK combinations from 16 to say, 2. Certainly As Ks would three bet the flop, and he might 3 bet a different AK if he was feeling frisky.

So at the turn we have 9.5BB, and the following villain combinations (18 total):

AK (2)
AA (3)
KK (6)
QQ (1)
JJ (6)

Lets say that if villain has AA or AK, he will raise the turn half the time, and wait until the river to raise the other half. If villain has KK-JJ he will fold x% of the time and call me down (100-x)% of the time:

EV = (5/18) * ( .5*-1BB + .5*-2BB) {AA, AK}
+(6/18) * (x*9.5BB + (1-x)*-2BB) {KK}
+(1/18) * (x*4.75BB + (1-x)*0BB) {QQ}
+(6/18) * (x*0BB + (1-x)*2BB) {JJ}

For EV > 0, we get x > 22%

If you are villain, would you fold KK or QQ > 22% of the time? How about the JJ? How are my assumptions for the EV calculation? You'll notice I don't consider the river card at all. Is it correct to assume that the times I improve vs the times villain improves cancel each other out equally?

Thanks!
~madscout