[npc]

Your argument has serious flaws.

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Can't beat blackjack without counting

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It can be beat without counting. One can use shuffle tracking and card sequencing to beat the game. Other methods of gaining an advantage exist as well. Of course, it's not easy.

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Counting is difficult to do while looking nonchalant

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It's not all that hard at all with a little practice.

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Counting is severely handicapped by liberal cuts in the shoe


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Actually, I think "conservative" cuts would be more appropriate, but this is absolutely true.

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Counters are spotted by their betting range


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This is absolutely true.

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All in all, I don't see how blackjack can be beaten long term.

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Tell that to the folks who have done and continue to do so. Of course, it's harder than it was 15 years ago, and given the amazing popularity of poker there are much easier ways to generate black ink in casinos these days, but it's still doable.

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If you enjoy blackjack, learn basic strategy, use a simple Ace-5 count, keep your bets in a reasonable spread to avoid suspicion, and you shouldn't lose too much dough.

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I recommend going with either Wong's version of the Hi-Low or Vancura and Fuchs KO system. Keep your bets in a reasonable spread and you should be able to make some money. Poker is much more profitable right now.