[wins_pot]

Ok, I was chip leader (w/ Howard Lederer) with 33 players remaining and finished in 21st place.
PlacePoker PlayerChip Count
1Brandon Adams$ 170,000
2Howard Lederer$ 170,000
3Nick Mao$ 155,000
4Antonio Esfandari$ 150,000
I went from 170000 to 70000 chips in 1hr45min (the 800-1600 200 ante rount and 15min of the 1000-2000 300 ante round). My analysis of the last day (when I had 70000 chips) is pasted at the bottom of this post. Just before the 800-1600 round, I took a 70000 pot from David Williams (seated directly to my left); from that point on, David ravaged my chip stack. For background, here was the 70k pot: I complete the SB, David checks, flop is 67K rainbow. I check with 45, David checks. Turn is an 8. I bet 5k, david raises to 13k. I think about re-raising but decide that I am better off calling and betting out the river (where I'll fold to a re-raise). The river comes an ace, I bet out 20k,David calls (he claims he had trip 7s, I suspected two pair). After this hand, most players would shut down when near the bubble, but David (whatever previous posters might say) is a fearless and extremely intelligent player. Here are some questions....
1. under what conditions (if any) might limping pre-flop be correct if you are the chip leader on the bubble and have aggressive players to your left? I didn;t ever limp, but I can see some good arguments for it.
2. if you open for a raise with a marginal hand (say QJ) and get a caller behind you, when should you make a play on the flop if it doesn;t hit and when should you go in check-fold mode? say you open with QJ, Williams flat calls with a big stack on the button, then the flop comes 10-8-4. do you bet this flop?
3. here is an actual hand. i complete the small blind with K4 spades. David checks the BB. flop is 345rainbow. I check-raise to 14k, then he makes it 40k (and claims A2). how else might i have played it?
4. another hand....
SB to my right completes with a 60k stack behind. I check J7 with Jack of spades (I should have put in a stiff raise here, but Williams had made me passive at this point). flop comes 852all spades, check-check. turn is 9. SB bets 5k. i raise to 12k with a a flush draw and gutshot, SB calls. ( i think a call, then a bluff on the end is better play for me here). river is a king (still on 3 spades on board). SB checks the river. should i check here for a probable loss, put in a small bluff, or put in a big bluff? remember we are on the bubble
5. last actual hand.
at this point david williams owns me.
he is now one of the chip leaders and i'm down to 90k.
i open for 6k in the 1-2 round, he raises to 18k, i FOLD QQ. he shows AK and says he would call. i believe him. at this point there were 29 players left (27 paid, 20 go to tournament of champions).
all guidance is appreciated. -brandon78


Boys,

Yesterday was a fun time, but I busted out at the end of the
1000-2000 (300 ante) round with QQ against KK (7-handed). I was in
the cutoff, the guy to my right raised to 6k, and I pushed for 50k
more with QQ. The guy in the BB had picked-up KK and called. I had
frequently re-raised the initial raiser on the previous day and taken
down a lot of pots; this is the main reason I pushed all-in. If I
make it 20k to go, he might push with AK. I take him off that hand
and a few others by pushing in myself. I felt yesterday and still
feel today that calling and taking a look at the flop was an inferior
strategy, but I might be wrong about that.
Looking back at the the day before yesterday (when I was co
chip-leader with Lederer with 33 players remaining), my main thought
is that I'm lucky I didn't go broke on the bubble given the way the
cards fell. I was destined to lose a lot of chips in the 800-1600
(200 ante) round.
Looking back on yesterday, I have to conclude that I didn't stick
with my strategy. I sat down with pen and paper for 3 hours after day
2 and thought about day 3 strategy. Lederer's optimal strategy was to
open a lot of pots pre-flop with marginal hands; mine was to re-raise
all-in with marginal hands.
It looks good that I went out with QQ against KK in a seven-handed
game, but the fact of the matter is that if I had played correctly I
should have either a) had a large chip stack at the point (70k + x ,
instead of 57k) or b) gone out much earlier with a hand like 78-suited
against a player who called my all-in re-raise.
A re-raise all-in at that stage aims to take down the pot and
increase your stack by 11400 (SB+BB+ante+initial raise). The only
things that should matter are:
1) what hands are you representing
2) what can your opponent call you with
3) given that he calls you, what is your chance of winning
AK, in most instances, can't call, but if they do they are 57% against
56-suited and 44% against QQ. against AA or KK, you are better off
with 56-suited (and many, many other hands) than with QQ.
Bottom line: I played my cards instead of my opponents, and
therefore didn't play aggressively enough in the 3rd day.

Brandon