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Old 05-30-2005, 01:59 AM
Louie Landale Louie Landale is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,277
Default Re: Poker puzzle challenge - Fundamental theorem

Caro contrived an example where Hero flopped a set of nines and its the nuts, yet has perhaps a 6% chance of winning (got to snag quads or get running 22, 33, or 44 (IIRC). But lets suppose it really is possible.

The situation you described is definately NOT a FTOP issue. If everyone calls then someone is the favorite: someone or two or three are going to win more than their 10% fair share. In fact, if hero cannot win then its possible that All the others are favorites; at least theoretically. These folks are NOT "making a mistake" by calling your bet. Now the first guy to call MAY be "making a mistake" when he has only a 12% chance of calling, but just because he doesn't know who else will call, but that's a different issue.

FTOP doesn't always apply to multi-way pots because there are certainly times where what's good for one person is also good for someone else. If the pair bets and the flush draw calls, the straight draw may be getting the right odds to call (good for him, bad the for pair), but its also good for the flush draw since the straight draw cannot beat the flush if he makes it. Likewise its a mistake for the straight draw to raise as a big underdog, but that's raising is also bad for the flush draw. In hi-lo split games, the best high hand almost always WANTS the best low hand to raise, trapping the other players.

- Louie
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