Re: At Wits End
I believe that the tourney route is particularly difficult, especially the lower dollar sit&go's. Here's my logic, though I haven't worked it out entirely, so I'd love to have some feedback.
Point 1: Sit&Gos typically have a 10% rake. I haven't done all the math, but $3 on a $30 buy-in, if it is comparable to a cash game is extremely high.
Point 2: Much like low-limit cash games, with the minimal "buy-in" many players stand between you and your money who (a) don't know how to play & (2) don't care if they lose... aka: are willing to make absurd moves in hopes of getting lucky. One or the other gives you an edge, but the combination of both & the volume of these types become prohibitive in an environment where the blinds are increasing steadily. This second point is based largely on game-theory, namely, that your opponents must be of a certain type and that even when far weaker than you, if they are similar in their aggression and maniac-like play then they will prohibit you from gaining an advantage... unless you get powerful hands which hit the board early. This final caveat, of course, is dependant on chance and thus cannot be expected over the long run.
Point 3: Unlike cash games, it is difficult to select your opponents. If particular cash game has a difficult mix of opponents then you can walk away, anytime without penalty. Obviously, the same is not true of tourneys... at best you may elect not to play a tourney before it begins, otherwise, it is your loss.
I think I have on or two more points to make, but I haven't quite flushed out the ideas yet & will restrain until I have. I will say though, that I think the larger payout/larger entrant tourneys may be profitable & would be worth participating in given adequate funding from cash games. Also, you will probably find that PL & NL cash games are particularly well suited to the style you have cultivated for tourney play, given some minor modifications.
peace,
MasterShake
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