Re: Turned a set of Aces on a Semi-Scary Board, What Now?
There is T210,000 in the center, villain has T141,000, hero has him covered.
Hero pushes.
Hero is at least 2:1 favorite at this point. The pot will be offering villain T351:T141 ~ 2.5:1. villain will be calling with almost all of his range most or which are flush draws with a gutshot. The 16 times you are up against QT is more than offset by the 18 times you are up against a lower set or the 28 ways you are up against 2 pr. Villain probably has between 12 and 15 outs. Assuming his TEV will rise substantially if he wins, he might call with the 12 out hands or less even though its slightly -CEV.
I don't think you want a call here, even if it is CEV+ because your TEV will go to zero if you lose the hand.
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