[Lloyd]

This is clearly +CEV. You are a favorite over the WIDE range of hands he could be pushing with and might possibly have him dominated with Ax. The question is whether or not this is +$EV.

The prize structure is:

1: $4,673
2: $2,878
3: $1,962
4: $1,308
5: $1,028
6: $841
7: $654
8: $486
9: $318
10-18: $206

Everybody has $206 locked up so you're just playing for the increase over that.

I forget if the stacks are listed before or after the blinds have been posted. I'm going to assume it's before. I'm also assuming around 2,500,000 total chips in play.

If you fold, you have 373,786 (15%).
If you call and win, you have 746,998 (30%).
If you call and lose, you have 80,574 (3%).

Let's just say that your expected percentage of the prize pool equals the % of total chips you have. There's no perfect method for doing +$EV calculations and this is one way.

There is $12,294 that you're playing for (after you already get the 10-18 prize money).

If you fold, 15% of the prize pool is $1,844. If you win, it's $3,688. If you lose, $369. Again, it's not perfect. If you lose you'll be in serious trouble and have to hope somebody busts out for you to move up. My guess is that if you lose you're $ share is less than $369 but let's just go with that for now.

Let's put him on a range of hands: Any pair, any ace, any king, Q8 or higher, suited connectors down to 87. Whatever. Against that range, you're a 59/41 favorite.

$3,688 * 59% equals $2,176
$369 * 41% equals $151
Total calling equals $2,327

$2,327 (calling) is greater than $1,844 (folding). Even if we say you will get knocked out before moving up in the money if you fold, the expectation is still higher by calling.

So, you call.