[Chris Alger]

As long as the multipartisan political consensus in Israel remains unchanged, and as long as it is politically infeasible for the US to impose terms by cutting (or threatening to cut) aid -- in pretty big chunks -- then the road map is slated for the same doom of every other initiative to realize Palistinian rights has met.

The lack of any Israeli government initiative proves that Israel prefers the status quo. The roadmap, according to US diplomatic interpretations, does not eliminate Israel's power to maintain the status quo -- it simply has to induce what Sharon calls Palestinian "terrorism:" any militant or violent resistence to the occupation. Powell appears to agree, arguing that the PA must stop all terrorism and "all violence." To proceed, the Palestinians must lock up or kill all the militants and then see what deal the Israeli militants are willing to provide. Of course, if the Palestinian resistence stops then the whole issue will drop off most US screens. Israel can return to its "death of a thousand cuts" policies against the Palestinians. (Recall that settlements expanded more dramatically under Barak than Netanyahu, as US diplomats and the media trumpeted Israel's "breathtaking" willingness to compromise).

Which isn't to say there won't someday be a Palestinian statelet run by Abu Mazen and his cronies, subject to Israeli oversight. It just won't be the independent country that most Palestinians are willing to accept (e.g., modified Green Line borders, no settlements, a capital in East Jerusalem, right of return, territorial continuity, actual sovereignty, etc.). Anything feasible will be more like the traditional Central American mode of government: well-heeled local elites keeping a lid on the population (in this case, probably hemmed in by their "canton" boundries) for the benefit of the regional bully.