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Old 05-25-2005, 01:04 PM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 44
Default Re: At what point do you stop thinking in terms of chip EV?

The only thing I would disagree with is a slight change at final 20-30 people. At this point, I am usually looking to win many uncontested pots. If I have a good tight table, I will pass up marginally +TC EV situations, b/c I think the may be negative $EV.

Here is an example from a few weeks ago.

The payout structure was pretty flat, then increasing sharply at final table.

Empire 10K.

24 players left (7 handed).

I have been stealing 1-2 per orbit, mixed with the occasional resteal. My stack has been growing steadily from avg, to top 5. I reraise a late position steal with 99. The player pushes and has me covered. Now given my range for him, it was a slightly +TC EV situation to call his push. But I feel like it was -$EV. I would fall to 6th place at a tight table by folding, or be out. I dont think the jump from 6th place to 1st place was as significant a $EV jump to compensate the risk.

If this was the middle of the tournament, I would have called.

Is this wrong? Id love some opinions. For the record, there were apx. 8BB in pot, and I had 30+xBB if I folded. With the range I put him on, I was a 49-51 dog in the pot.
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