[madscout]

Given only the information I have at the flop, if I make some assumptions I don't think my flop call is that bad. Please feel free to criticize me here because I want to learn.

My assumptions:
1) I will not face two bets on the turn if I pick up a draw
2) all my flush outs are good.
3) I can get a raise in on the river with everyone calling (probably wishful thinking)

Here's my EV analysis:

I miss picking up a draw: 0.68*-.5BB = -.34BB
I hit a flush draw but miss the river: 0.19*0.804*-1.5BB = -.23BB
I hit a straight draw but miss the river: 0.13*0.826*-1.5BB = -.16BB
I hit a runner runner flush: 0.19*0.196*15.75BB = .59BB
I hit a runner runner straight: 0.19*0.196*15.75BB = .36BB

EV = .59 + .36 - .16 - .23 - .34 = + 0.22BB

Is this just a bunch of wishful thinking trying to justify my call? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]