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Old 05-23-2005, 12:24 AM
Iconoclastic Iconoclastic is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 37
Default Re: an pivotal hand in a big tournament

My read probably wouldn't have been JJ, but I'm a firm believer that you win and lose with your reads so you gotta go with your gut. Your immediate instinct was to fold-prolly the right play.

Based on your written account and fleshed out with my own imagination, my preflop read would have been nonhigh PP or medium/low suited connectors, in addition to high PP and high Aces. I don't really like the raise to 6400 as you're still giving odds to a PP for a set and a chance for players who read you as tight to outplay you postflop. He could very well have called preflop with Aces- I do it quite often myself to trap lower pairs or high cards. Depending on his reads he might have pushed the Flop with any of the following- bluffing with a PP or stone cold, a 4, a Q, or a high PP. I doubt he had a FH or quads because usually one would not play that fast.

Your pot odds in this hand are about 30%.

Opponent's hand/chances of winning against
Lower PP or 4/~87%
Stone Cold/81%
AA/8%
FH/15%
Quads/1%
Q/9%

Looks like a call to me.
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