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Old 05-21-2005, 01:38 PM
Scorpion Man Scorpion Man is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 15
Default Re: So I folded AK on the bubble

I don't think its a clear call by any means. But I also think its clearly not an easy fold. I ran some math and you can argue with the specifics, but the general conclusions is that its about a push, so to me that says its not a clear anything.

Assume the following -- 50.30.20 payout.
If you fold this hand your chances of finishing
1=20%
2=40%
3=25%
4=15%

If you call your chances are

1=40%
2=20%
3=5%
4=35%

These were the first numbers I picked out of the air, and as it happens the EV was dead even.

I really disagree with your QQ comment. You are a favorite to 70%+ of his hands in that situation. I think QQ is a clear call.

I am very curious to understand, given the above math, why everyone thinks its so clear to fold? I dont think folding is dumb, I just dont think its a no brainer.
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