View Single Post
  #8  
Old 05-20-2005, 05:41 PM
gergery gergery is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: SF Bay Area (eastbay)
Posts: 719
Default Re: Flopped nuts but very vulnerable

I’d be more likely to fold than to bet.

You have the nut straight right now, but there are not Oscars given out for “Best Hand On the Flop But Before the Turn”.

With 6 opponents and a made A2 low possible, you must win at showdown to win, so are now drawing to blanks. You need no hearts, 3,4,5,6,7 or runner-clubs. That’s roughly 19 cards, depending on how you want to count it all out. So you’ll have the nuts on the river ~32% of the time, maybe alittle more if the above cards don’t make someone a specific hand, but maybe less if you’re tied for high right now. And that 32% is for half the pot, and will return you only half your bets put in, so maybe its worth 40% of the pot. So your equity here is maybe 13% or so.

So I’d want at least 7:1 to continue, which you don’t have. And, that is for here to the river. I can envision some assumptions where playing this out makes you money, but on balance you will not be missing much by folding.

--Greg
Reply With Quote