[Atropos]

Dont restate the obvious that has been said million times. Use numbers to make a point.

I see it this way: With a 200 stack ICM says I got around 2.8% of the prizepool. In a 33 Sit&Go thats 8$. If i gamble and lose I've lost 8$. If I gamble and win my Equity goes up to 7.22% of the prizepool --> 21.66$. Alone by this I have much more to gain than to lose.

Lets say I would have to wait 10 Minutes for a good hand while getting blinded down. So I would have to win 2 allins to get as many chips as I would if I gambled at that point and won. Let's say my good hands will hold up 60% of the time --> 0.60 * 0.60 * 8$ = 2.88$

Now I have not even included the chance that I get a good hand - good hands do not have to come.And I have not included the chance that everybody folds to my first push - still a possibility.

If my average Sit&Go lasts 35 minutes, and I had an ROI of 25%, I would gain around 2.88$ in 10 minutes too.

Problem: Nearly all my numbers are made up. I dont know how long my average Sit&Gos take, how high my ROI is, how high the chance of getting a good hand in the next 10 hands before getting blinded to death is, and how often they hold up against weaker calling hands. Thats why I asked my question and hoped someone with more experience could answer it.