A simple analysis
Actually its not so simple and I will leave it to others. Anyway suppose you have Q4 offsuit and are raised by someone with any pair, any ace or any two cards that add up to 15 or more. Something like that anyway.
Next assume that your strategy is to fold on the flop if you don't pair and check and call all the way to the river if you do. Obviously if this strategy is profitable or close to it, regardless of your opponent play, then the preflop call is correct. Assuming the preflop prerequisites specified.
Simple math shows that this simple strategy makes the preflop call right if your opponent will always bet all three rounds. You will win more than half the time it goes to the river. It is also obvious that the preflop call is right if the player always bets the flop and then always checks if he can't beat you. The tougher calculations occur if we stipulate a bet on the turn is a favorite but not a certainty too represent a better hand. Now add in that only some of the turn bluffs or semi bluffs will result in a second bluff on the river. My guess is that against a player like this a simple check call strategy to the river will lose enough to make the preflop call wrong. If so we have more work to do.
|