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Old 05-19-2005, 04:22 PM
Siegmund Siegmund is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 415
Default Re: Lottery expected value problem

The other posters have all shown the correct setup.

One detail noone has yet mentioned is that if the top prize is hit by more than one ticket the prize is split (while most if not all of the other prizes are fixed amounts and they pay everyone who hits the same amount.)

Assuming all combinations of lottery numbers are equally likely to be played, this means the value of the top prize is not 10,000,000, but 10000000/(1+(# tickets sold this week)/120526770)), which is going to put a significant dent in your EV since several million tickets get sold every week.
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