AI - hold, sell or hedge?
I have 11- Bo and 7- Carrie.
If I hold out, worst case (Carrie wins), is worth $700
and best case is worth $1100
If I liquidated now, its worth $850. So basically I am risking $150 to win $400 on Bo. Getting 2.7:1 on him at this point is a nice price.
Or, I could hedge, and buy 4 more Carries for $160, and take 11 each to the finals. $1100 - $160 = $940.
So in actuality, I am guaranteed $940 right now, and holding pat, I am risking $240 to win $400. Again, if Bo is the favorite, this is the best line, but how much a favorite is he (if any)? I think Bo is the best AI contestant ever, but Carrie has never been in the bottom 3, and has Simon in her back pocket... this has diminished in recent weeks, but it may be still to close to call...
Whats the best move?
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