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Old 05-18-2005, 04:01 AM
THATWACOKID THATWACOKID is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: TEXAS
Posts: 389
Default Re: Curiosity killed the cat, or did it?

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Here's the problem. Its ALWAYS possible. Nature of the beast. We ALL fold to bluffs every day. Don't feel bad about folding to a good bluff, give your opponent credit and stop taking it personally.

You have to estimate the CHANCE its a bluff, then look at the pot odds. Instead of saying to yourself 'it could be a bluff', say 'it could be a bluff - what percentage of the time does villian bluff here?' - you NEED a number, even if its only a very rough estimate.

Calling hit pot sized bets turn and river would need his bluff % to be about 33% to be EV neutral, which is ridiculous for anything but a maniac. If you've never seen someone bluff big in a sesssion, 10% AT MOST is a good assumption. And he fired on turn AND river, so frankly its about 5% now. You would need his river bet to be joke sized to make it worthwhile on the reasoning 'he could be on a bluff'.

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This is the type of response I was looking for. Great advice. It turned out villian was bluffing, but it definitely didn't feel like a good call. I had been folding aces and kings left and right all day and I felt like I was folding them too much. As I clicked the call button it's almost like I was suprised that I won. Wow, that is bad. Thanks for your response RR.
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